What a Threshold Is Meant to Do

A free shipping threshold trades one cost for a larger basket. The store covers delivery only when an order reaches a set value, while the customer adds products to qualify. For illustration only, a customer with $68 in craft drinks may add a $22 item to reach the threshold; the store then subsidises that order’s delivery, but has more product revenue to absorb the freight cost. The threshold is therefore a basket-building offer, not simply a delivery discount.

The right comparison depends on the behaviour you want to change. Sitewide free delivery removes delivery cost on every eligible order and is simple to understand, but it also subsidises small baskets. Flat-rate shipping makes the customer pay a fixed amount and protects the store from some freight variation, but may not prompt an extra purchase. Local collection removes the delivery transaction altogether and suits customers who can collect, but does not serve shipped orders. Use a threshold when increasing shipped order value is the specific objective; use the other measures when simplicity, freight recovery or local access matters more.

What each delivery offer is designed to change
OfferPrimary purposeCustomer action
Free shipping thresholdIncrease shipped basket valueAdd items to qualify
Sitewide free deliveryRemove delivery frictionPlace any eligible order
Flat-rate shippingRecover part of freight costAccept a known delivery charge
Local collectionAvoid shipped fulfilmentCollect from the nominated location

Start With Contribution Margin

Set the threshold against contribution margin, not sales revenue. For each order, deduct product cost, payment processing fees, packaging, pick-and-pack or fulfilment charges, and the carrier cost you will absorb under free shipping. Product cost should reflect the cost of the units sold, including any directly attributable inbound cost you normally include in your product model.

Use the same tax basis throughout. Business.gov.au states that GST is 10% on most goods and services in Australia, with the GST portion being one-eleventh of the sale price for registered businesses. If you are GST-registered, calculate margin on ex-GST revenue and costs where applicable; do not treat collected GST as profit (Source: business.gov.au (Australian Government)).

Exclude costs that do not change when this order ships, such as rent, salaried staff, software subscriptions and general insurance. For illustration only, a $120 order with $48 product cost, $4 payment fees, $3 packaging, $6 fulfilment and $12 delivery contributes $47 before fixed overheads. That $47 is the amount available to assess the shipping offer. The product pricing calculator can help check the unit economics.

Worked example with sample numbers

This example is illustrative. It uses sample numbers for a craft beverages store selling in Australia. They are made up to show the method, they are not a benchmark, and your own figures will differ.

Formula: Lowest safe basket = (delivery + packing + fixed fee) / (gross margin rate - percentage fee - minimum margin you will accept).

Sample numbers: free delivery at different basket sizes
Basket without taxMargin before deliveryAfter absorbing deliveryShare of basket
A$43.63A$25.65A$13.8831.8%
A$58.17A$34.34A$22.5838.8%
A$87.26A$51.74A$39.9845.8%
A$116.35A$69.14A$57.3749.3%

Run the same sum with your own numbers in the free calculator, or browse guides for sellers in Australia and more craft beverages guides.

General information only: tax, duty and import rules change and depend on your situation, so check with an accountant or the official source before acting.

Eligible Shopify stores can see these numbers for their own store through the Founding 10,000 offer.

Finding the Lowest Safe Threshold

Test each candidate by asking whether the qualifying basket still contributes enough after delivery. Use the same basis for every row: threshold value, contribution before shipping, delivery cost and the amount left. The lowest safe threshold is not simply the smallest positive result; it is the lowest candidate that remains acceptable across your normal qualifying orders, including delivery zones and heavier consignments.

The figures below are illustrative, not Australian benchmarks. A $90 threshold leaves $10 after an $11 delivery cost ($21 − $11). Compare that residual with your required buffer before selecting it. Read the separately added worked example using the same sequence and its own stated figures; do not substitute the table’s illustrative numbers. If thresholds are GST-inclusive, keep the comparison consistent: business.gov.au says GST is 10% on most Australian sales and the GST portion is one-eleventh of the sale price. Use the product pricing calculator to check the arithmetic.

Illustrative threshold comparison
ThresholdContribution before shippingDelivery costContribution after shipping
$90$21$11$10
$110$27$13$14
$130$32$16$16

Items That Lift the Basket

Build the threshold into the offer rather than asking customers to add random items. A mixed case can combine popular and discovery products at the normal item price; for example, four $18 bottles plus two $16 bottles creates a $104 basket without reducing the delivery benefit. Label the case by use, weekend tasting, regional mix or gift selection, so the extra units feel intentional.

Add-ons work when they solve a clear need: glassware, non-alcoholic mixers, tasting notes, gift packaging or a larger format. Keep these items available beside the cart, not buried in a separate collection. Replenishment prompts suit products with a known repeat pattern. Use customer-level repeat behaviour to identify whether a reminder for another case or refill is commercially sensible, without assuming every buyer will reorder.

Compare each route on incremental contribution, not just the basket value. A bundle may lift the average order while including a low-margin product; an add-on may have stronger margin but little uptake. Product- and collection-level profitability in ORVX can show which combinations protect contribution and which leave dead stock behind. Use the product pricing calculator to check the bundle arithmetic before publishing it.

Compare the Offer You Can Sustain

Compare the offer to the problem you are trying to solve. A free-shipping threshold is for increasing basket size when customers can reasonably add another bottle, mixed case, or gift item. Flat-rate delivery is for predictable checkout pricing when order values vary or baskets are already close to their natural size; set it from typical delivered-order cost, then check that low-value orders do not lose money. Use a product pricing calculator to test both structures against contribution.

Product-specific exclusions are for items whose freight or handling breaks the general rule: heavy cartons, chilled products, fragile bottles, remote-area surcharges, or low-margin promotions. Regional rules are for genuine cost differences, such as metro delivery versus distant postcodes, not a blanket workaround for weak economics. Act on exclusions when a small group of SKUs causes most shipping losses; act on regional rules when delivery cost changes materially by destination. Keep the customer-facing wording explicit: what qualifies, which products are excluded, and where the offer applies.

Measuring the Result

Set a fixed baseline and review period before changing the offer. Compare four complete weeks before launch with four complete weeks after launch, using the same weekdays and excluding launch-day anomalies. If order volume is low or demand is seasonal, extend the post-change window to eight weeks rather than acting on a few orders.

Track the measures together, not in isolation. Revenue should use delivered orders only, excluding cancellations and returns. Delivery cost should include the shipping cost paid by the store. Contribution margin shows whether the extra basket value remains profitable after product, payment, fulfilment and delivery costs. AOV is revenue divided by orders; conversion rate is orders divided by relevant sessions. Record the baseline, post-change result and percentage change for each, then compare the change against your target margin.

  • Orders: act here when demand or order volume falls, even if AOV rises.
  • Revenue: use it to assess total sales movement, but not profitability on its own.
  • Delivery cost per order: investigate when free shipping increases fulfilment spend faster than revenue.
  • Contribution margin per order and in total: act when the threshold lifts sales but reduces profit.
  • AOV: lower-than-expected movement suggests shoppers are not adding enough to qualify.
  • Conversion rate: act when the threshold creates too much purchase friction; review alongside checkout and qualifying-order rates.

A defensible free shipping threshold starts with the contribution margin of a real order, then tests whether the resulting basket value covers the delivery commitment. Use the worked example to follow the calculation, compare the threshold with other delivery offers, and keep the option only when measured profit supports it.

Sources

How this page was made: drafted with AI from a brief, then checked by automated rules for arithmetic, sources and duplication. The sample numbers were calculated, not reported.