Read Your Own Seasonal Pattern
Use matched periods before calling a change seasonal: the same weeks last year, the previous comparable promotion, or the same number of weeks before and after a campaign. Compare orders, units, realized revenue, contribution after advertising, and product or collection mix. ORVX calculates realized revenue from delivered orders only, excluding returned and cancelled orders.
Read the measures together. For illustration only, 120 units at $30 produces $3,600 revenue; 100 units at $32 produces $3,200. If the second period generates higher contribution, the lower unit count may reflect a healthier mix or lower advertising cost. Check which categories created that contribution, rather than treating store-wide revenue as the pattern. Product-level results help with individual items; collection-level results show whether a broader category is carrying the period.
| Measure | What it shows | When to act on it |
|---|---|---|
| Orders | Number of completed purchases | When purchase frequency or timing changes |
| Units | Volume sold | When demand or pack size is changing |
| Revenue | Delivered sales value | When assessing commercial scale |
| Contribution | Value remaining after advertising | When choosing profitable products or collections |
| Category mix | Which products drove the period | When allocating attention across the range |
Turn Demand Signals into a Stock Plan
Convert demand into units: weekly sales plus supplier lead time and a peak-week buffer. If shampoo sells 20 units a week, takes three weeks to arrive and needs a one-week buffer, the reorder point is 80 units; commit cash when stock reaches it, not when promotion starts. Test lead times and buffers with the inventory reorder calculator.
Compare ex-GST revenue with product cost, expected returns and advertising contribution. GST in New Zealand is charged at a rate of 15% (Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake): GST); a $115 GST-inclusive sale is $100 before GST. ORVX reports inventory position, remaining stock value, dead stock, and product and collection profitability (Source: Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake)).
Forecast bundles by component: 30 bundles require 30 shampoos, 30 towels and 30 applicators. Reorder each against its lead time and current stock. For slow movers, commit smaller quantities or bundle only if profitable. Secure constrained peak-season components, confirm the supplier’s delivery date in writing, and prepare a substitute or bundle variant.
| Measure | Use it for | Act when |
|---|---|---|
| Reorder point | Timing the next purchase | Available stock reaches lead-time demand plus buffer |
| Contribution after advertising | Choosing which products or bundles deserve scarce stock | The item covers product cost and advertising while contributing profit |
| Dead stock and remaining stock value | Managing slow movers | Cash is tied up without a credible sell-through path |
Worked example with sample numbers
This example is illustrative. It uses sample numbers for a car care products store selling in New Zealand. They are made up to show the method, they are not a benchmark, and your own figures will differ.
Formula: Stock to fund = forecast orders x cost of goods per order.
| Month type | Orders | Stock cost to fund | Margin earned |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet | 306 | NZ$22735.26 | NZ$9610.61 |
| Busy | 490 | NZ$36406.13 | NZ$15389.54 |
| Peak | 734 | NZ$54534.89 | NZ$23052.90 |
Run the same sum with your own numbers in the free calculator, or browse guides for sellers in New Zealand and more car care products guides.
General information only: tax, duty and import rules change and depend on your situation, so check with an accountant or the official source before acting.
Eligible Shopify stores can see these numbers for their own store through the Founding 10,000 offer.
Protect Cash Before Orders Accelerate
Sales asks whether demand covers stock; cash asks whether receipts precede supplier invoices, fulfilment bills and fixed commitments, particularly when a peak needs an upfront purchase, terms are short or receipts lag delivery.
For illustration only, 300 units at a landed cost of $8 require $2,400. Expected receipts of $4,200 less fulfilment costs of $900 and operating commitments of $1,500 leave the plan $600 short before GST and tax. Consider a smaller order, different payment timing or more cash reserved. Use the inventory reorder calculator to test stock requirements, then list supplier and operating due dates beside it.
Keep GST separate from trading margin and available cash. GST in New Zealand is charged at a rate of 15% (Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake): https://www.ird.govt.nz/gst). ORVX reports delivered-order revenue, product costs, profitability, returns and remaining stock value; cash schedules also need settlement timing and bills outside store data (Source: Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake)).
| View | Use it for | Act on it when |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | Demand, revenue and gross profit | The question is whether the range is commercially attractive |
| Cash | Receipts minus stock, fulfilment and commitments | The question is whether the business can fund the peak on time |
Set Ad Budgets Around Commercial Priorities
Set budgets by decision, not one headline metric. For channel allocation, use revenue, MER and attributed ROAS: MER compares total store revenue with total ad spend; attributed ROAS compares revenue credited to one source. ORVX tracks them separately, so platform attribution can look strong without improving efficiency. For product and collection priorities, use contribution after advertising, not revenue: a $100 sale is not equal if one product leaves $35 after advertising and another $8. Increase spend on products with sufficient contribution and stock; reduce or fix economics when sales grow without contribution. For acquisition, use CAC: $1,000 for 50 new customers means $20 CAC. Compare it with customer-level profitability and repeat behaviour before extending budget. Use realized revenue for pacing, contribution for profit protection and CAC for acquisition decisions.
How to Read the Worked Planning Example
Validate each section separately. For stock, compare expected sales with stock on hand, supplier lead time and buffer to check arrival timing and remaining inventory; this does not prove affordability. For cash, match receipts by date, not total sales, against supplier invoices, fulfilment, advertising and fixed commitments, and check GST-inclusive or GST-exclusive treatment. GST in New Zealand is charged at a rate of 15% (Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake), GST). A profitable stock plan can still create a shortfall. For ads, use attributed ROAS for channel reporting and MER for the whole-store budget: different answers reflect measurement, not arithmetic. Compare assumptions with completed periods in New Zealand seller guides (Source: Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake)).
Review the Plan After the Peak
After the peak, compare forecast units and revenue with delivered orders, sell-through, returns, cancellations and remaining stock. Distinguish demand error from stock-decision error: below-forecast sales may mean weak demand, a stockout, delayed fulfilment or unavailable variants. Reconcile cash assumptions with actual receipts, supplier invoices, fulfilment costs, refunds, fixed commitments and timing.
Review MER and attributed ROAS separately, then gross margin, contribution after advertising and net margin by product and collection; identify effects of discounts, freight, returns and mix. Update assumptions with observed lead time, sell-through, peak conversion, campaign economics and cash timing. ORVX reports delivered-order revenue, product and collection profitability, returns, inventory position, dead stock and remaining stock value, and forecasts from completed months with backtested error. Adjust assumptions; do not assume the next peak will repeat them.
| Measure | What to compare | When to act |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Planned versus delivered revenue and units | Change the demand assumption when the variance is not explained by stockouts or fulfilment |
| Stock | Planned sell-through versus remaining stock and dead stock | Reduce the next buy or revise the buffer when excess stock remains |
| Campaigns | MER and attributed ROAS against the objective | Reallocate only after checking margin and returns |
| Cash | Expected versus actual receipts, invoices and outflows | Change payment-timing assumptions before committing to peak stock |
Seasonal planning is a repeatable comparison between what your store expected, what it committed and what actually happened. Use the result to adjust purchasing dates, cash reserves, campaign allocation and product priorities for the next demand period.
Sources
- GST (goods and services tax) (Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake), checked 26 October 2026).
How this page was made: drafted with AI from a brief, then checked by automated rules for arithmetic, sources and duplication. The sample numbers were calculated, not reported.