Reading Your Own Seasonal Pattern
Compare the same weeks or months across at least two trading years, reviewing delivered orders, units sold, revenue, and the products or collections behind each movement. Recurring rises in orders and units are stronger evidence of seasonality than a revenue spike alone. ORVX connects to Shopify, syncs orders, products and customers, and calculates realised revenue from delivered orders only, never counting returned or cancelled orders.
Annotate promotions, stockouts, launches, influencer mentions and one-off events. Check whether several products moved together, customers showed repeat behaviour and profitability changed. A £12,000 peak from discounted, high-return products is not equivalent to £12,000 from full-price repeat purchases. ORVX shows product, collection and customer profitability alongside return rates.
| Signal | Useful for | Check before calling it seasonal |
|---|---|---|
| Orders | Timing and breadth of demand | Promotion or one-off traffic |
| Units | Volume and product movement | Stockouts or fulfilment limits |
| Revenue | Sales value | Discounts, returns and product mix |
| Products or collections | Identifying repeatable winners | Launches and discontinued lines |
Choose the Measure That Fits the Decision
Choose measures by decision: orders show fulfilment workload; units sold guide stock (200 orders may contain 220 units, or 400 in a bundle-led period). Revenue supports sales targets and VAT monitoring but excludes product and advertising costs. Use contribution after advertising for promotional budget; for pricing compare revenue and contribution per unit, then returns. For cash, align delivered-order revenue with settlements, supplier invoices and purchasing dates: revenue is not cash.
- Stock: units sold adjusted for returns, plus remaining stock and value.
- Purchasing: units and sales velocity against available cash and supplier due dates.
- Advertising: contribution after advertising, alongside MER and attributed ROAS; they answer different questions.
- Profitability: use realized revenue from delivered orders only. ORVX computes cost of goods from a product cost model, derives gross and net profit, and reports contribution after advertising by product or collection.
| Measure | Use it when deciding | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Order count | Capacity and fulfilment workload | Ignores basket size and product mix |
| Units sold | Stock quantities and purchasing | Does not show selling price or margin |
| Revenue | Sales targets and VAT monitoring | Does not show costs or cash timing |
| Contribution | Pricing and advertising allocation | Depends on accurate costs and ad attribution |
| Cash timing | Whether a purchase is affordable now | Requires settlement and supplier-date data |
Worked example with sample numbers
This example is illustrative. It uses sample numbers for a haircare store selling in the UK. They are made up to show the method, they are not a benchmark, and your own figures will differ.
Formula: Stock to fund = forecast orders x cost of goods per order.
| Month type | Orders | Stock cost to fund | Margin earned |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet | 308 | £2811.30 | £5691.36 |
| Busy | 493 | £4499.91 | £9109.87 |
| Peak | 739 | £6745.30 | £13655.57 |
Run the same sum with your own numbers in the free calculator, or browse guides for sellers in the UK and more haircare guides.
General information only: tax, duty and import rules change and depend on your situation, so check with an accountant or the official source before acting.
Eligible Shopify stores can see these numbers for their own store through the Founding 10,000 offer.
Planning Stock Before the Peak
Set the buying date backwards from the peak: supplier lead time, receiving, checking and putting stock live. Opening stock should cover expected sales during that window, sales until the next delivery and a defined buffer, less usable stock held and confirmed inbound units. A reorder calculator can structure the arithmetic, using supplier- and product-specific inputs.
Use SKU-level assumptions: a frequently reordered shampoo, seasonal gift set and slow-moving treatment differ in demand, shelf-life and replenishment risk. Protect proven hero products for short events, buy earlier with long lead times and commit less when demand is uncertain. If 300 units cost £6 each, opening stock commits £1,800 before the peak, even if unsold.
- Act on lead-time risk when a missed delivery cannot be replaced before the event.
- Act on product demand when history and current stock support a SKU-level quantity, not a store-wide percentage.
- Act on cash exposure when a purchase leaves too much value in slow or unproven stock. ORVX reports remaining stock value, dead stock, inventory position and product-level profitability, so revenue alone does not set the buying quantity.
| Measure | Right decision |
|---|---|
| Opening stock | How many units to hold before trading accelerates |
| Replenishment risk | Whether lead time and supplier uncertainty require a buffer |
| Cash committed | Whether the proposed buy is affordable across the product range |
Protecting Cash Through Seasonal Purchasing
Map the season by payment date, not order date. Each week, list supplier payments, customer receipts, fulfilment costs and refunds, then track cash movement. Show inventory separately: it may be an asset on paper after the invoice has left your bank. A £6,000 stock position is not £6,000 available for ads, wages or refunds. Use receipts and payments for liquidity, and gross profit for trading performance. Read the worked example row by row: trace cash outgoings, delivered-order receipts, refunds and fulfilment costs, and whether the sales peak becomes a cash trough. Do not add inventory to cash or treat unrefunded orders as final revenue. ORVX calculates realised revenue from delivered orders and reports return rates and refund value against revenue.
| Week | Supplier payments | Customer receipts | Fulfilment | Refunds | Net cash movement | Stock value at week end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | £1,200 | £2,400 | £300 | £100 | +£800 | £4,500 |
| 2 | £3,000 | £1,800 | £400 | £200 | -£1,800 | £6,000 |
| 3 | £500 | £3,200 | £450 | £150 | +£2,100 | £5,200 |
Ad Budgets Across the Year
A steady budget suits stores with reliable stock depth and time to learn. Keep weekly spend broadly consistent and compare contribution after advertising by product or collection. This avoids concentrating spend in a short peak but may miss a seasonal buying window.
Event-led increases concentrate budget around dates such as Black Friday or Christmas. Use them when stock, fulfilment capacity and quick judgement are available. The trade-off is less learning time: a weak campaign may consume budget before adjustment. Check remaining stock and cash commitments first, using an inventory reorder calculator where useful.
Product-specific allocation puts more spend behind items with healthy contribution after advertising and sufficient stock, rather than promoting the whole catalogue. A £30 sale less £10 product cost and £8 advertising leaves £12 before other variable costs. ORVX reports this contribution by product and collection, alongside dead stock and remaining stock value. Use that evidence to scale, reduce or test, allowing enough spend and time for a meaningful read.
| Approach | Use when | Main constraint |
|---|---|---|
| Steady | Stock and demand are consistent | Slower to capture short events |
| Event-led | A peak has stock and a fixed buying window | Less time to learn |
| Product-specific | Some products have stronger contribution | Needs product-level evidence |
What to Review After the Peak
Compare forecast with delivered orders; calculate product sell-through (units sold ÷ opening units); record stockout dates and estimated missed sales separately from slow-moving or leftover stock. A product with 90% sell-through but a two-week stockout needs different action from one with 40% sell-through and heavy discounting ahead.
Reconcile weekly cash: customer receipts, supplier payments, fulfilment, refunds and advertising spend. Compare MER (total store revenue ÷ total ad spend) with attributed ROAS (conversions assigned to a channel). Review contribution after advertising by product or collection, not revenue alone. ORVX connects Shopify and advertising accounts, reports inventory and dead stock, and shows these measures in the store’s trading currency.
- For the next comparable period, increase buys only where profitable demand and material stockouts coincide; reduce or test purchases where leftover value and weak contribution persist. Carry forward actual forecast error, cash pinch points, winning audiences and wasted spend, with one named owner and review date.
| Measure | Right action |
|---|---|
| Forecast versus delivered orders | Adjust the next period’s demand assumption |
| Sell-through and stockouts | Change quantity or buying timing |
| Leftover stock value | Plan markdown, bundle or reduced reorder |
| Cash movement | Reschedule commitments or protect liquidity |
| MER, attributed ROAS and contribution | Scale, reduce, fix economics or test |
A useful seasonal plan connects the same trading period across three decisions: what to buy, how much cash to commit and when advertising can support profitable demand. Review those decisions against your own order history, then carry the learning into the next comparable sales period.
Sources
- VAT registration: when to register (GOV.UK (HM Revenue & Customs), checked 26 October 2026).
How this page was made: drafted with AI from a brief, then checked by automated rules for arithmetic, sources and duplication. The sample numbers were calculated, not reported.